Here’s a numerical example showing how HMRC calculates your expected liability under Self Assessment
Example: Calculating Expected Liability
Background
- Your total tax and Class 4 National Insurance liability for 2023/24 (after PAYE and other credits) = £12,000.
- You are self-employed and still trading in 2024/25, so HMRC assumes your next year’s liability will be roughly the same.
Step 1 – Work out the payments on account
Expected liability for 2024/25 is based on 100% of the previous year’s liability, split into two instalments:
[£12,000 × 50% = £6,000 \text{ per instalment}]
- 1st Payment on Account (POA) – due 31 January 2025 = £6,000
- 2nd Payment on Account (POA) – due 31 July 2025 = £6,000
You will therefore have paid £12,000 on account by 31 July 2025.
Step 2 – File the 2024/25 tax return
Suppose your actual tax liability for 2024/25 turns out to be £13,500.
Step 3 – Work out the balancing payment
[Actual liability (£13,500)} − \text{Payments on account (£12,000)} = £1,500]
That £1,500 is your balancing payment, due 31 January 2026.
Step 4 – Calculate next year’s payments on account
HMRC will now base your 2025/26 expected liability on this latest figure (£13,500), unless you claim to reduce it.
[£13,500 × 50% = £6,750 \text{ per instalment}]
So your next two payments on account will each be £6,750, due 31 January 2026 and 31 July 2026.
Step 5 – If your income drops
If you know your 2025/26 profits will be lower, you can apply to reduce your payments on account.
For example, if you expect your liability to fall to £10,000, you can claim to reduce each POA to:
[£10,000 × 50% = £5,000]
If you reduce too much and end up owing more, HMRC will charge interest on the shortfall.
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